On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board voted to hold interest rates steady rather than raise them. The Fed's rate hikes over the past year and a half have felt like a heavy blow to the property market, as the Fed has sought to cool inflation - and the pricey property market - at the same time.
The Fed has signalled that it may raise rates again this year, but there are no guarantees. And mortgage rates are unlikely to pick up in the near term.
"Simply keeping rates stable is not enough for us to see a dramatic change in mortgage rates and in the housing market," Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com®, said in a statement.
"I don't think we're going to see much relief in mortgage rates after today's meeting, but I also don't think it's going to get too bad."
The Fed has raised rates 11 times since last March. While these rates are separate from mortgage rates, mortgage rates usually move in the same direction.
According to the latest data from Freddie Mac, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan was 7.18% for the week ending 14 September. That's more than double the rate of two years ago, when it was less than 3 percent, and it's now at its highest level in more than 20 years.
"Higher mortgage rates have fundamentally changed the purchasing power of homebuyers," Hale said.
Perhaps more importantly, higher mortgage rates continue to discourage existing homeowners, with as many as one in seven dropping out of the market because they don't want to take out a loan at the much higher interest rates they now pay.
Buyers can't afford to buy and homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes because they don't want to give up a low rate to buy a new home at a higher rate. This phenomenon has exacerbated the housing shortage which, ironically, has led to further increases in home prices. Those who can still afford to buy a home are competing for a very small number of homes, leading to bidding wars and offers over asking price.
That's why home sales in the resale market have dropped from about 6.5 million per year in early 2022 to about 4 million today.
Mortgage rates are still so much higher than what homeowners are locking in that I don't think it's going to encourage sellers to list, said Devyn Bachman, senior vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate and Consulting. I also don't think it's going to encourage buyers [to come in] and wait and see.
The Fed's decision to pause rate hikes doesn't mean things will get better. On the contrary, until the Fed raises rates again or signals an end to rate hikes, things will likely stay the way they are now.
Homebuyers won't be happy to hear that rates are likely to stay above 7%, but of course, that's better than rates above 8%.
The Fed has signalled that another rate hike may be on the cards in the future to bring annual inflation down to its 2% target. in August, inflation was close to double the Fed's target at 3.7%. Another rate hike, or even the anticipation of one, could lead to a pickup in mortgage rates.
We are nearing the end of the current rate hike cycle, but I think the Fed may need to hold one or two more meetings to feel confident enough to announce this, Hale said.