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Mortgage rates just dropped, but will they stay low for long?
Jul 24, 2023
Mortgage rates just dropped, but will they stay low for long? Dallas
By   Margaret Heidenry
  • City News
  • Mortgage Rates
  • Mortgages
  • Home Prices
  • Housing Shortage
Abstract: So far this year, homebuyers have been squeezed by high mortgage rates, stubbornly high home prices and a shortage of fresh listings.

There has been some joy in the market recently: Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans fell to 6.78% for the week ending July 20, according to Freddie Mac. That's a relief given that last week's rate reached its highest point since Nov. 22 - 6.96 percent.

 

However, homebuyers shouldn't get their hopes up too much just yet about the recent drop in rates.

 

"Based on recent inflation data, we expect the Fed is likely to take a wait-and-see approach at future meetings," Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com®, noted in her analysis. In other words, Hale predicts "another Fed rate hike" in the coming weeks, which could lead to another rise in mortgage rates.

 

So what will this entail in the ever-fluctuating real estate equation? In our latest installment of "How's the Real Estate Market This Week?" we cover what the latest real estate data means for home buyers and sellers.

 

Mortgage rates fell further from 7.08 percent - a 20-year high set in October - a major victory for homebuyers.

 

Homebuyers can also score a small victory in the battle against stubbornly high home prices: median home prices have fallen for six straight weeks. In even better news, the pace of price declines has accelerated, with prices down 0.9% in the week ending July 15 compared to the same week a year ago. (List prices a week earlier were down just 0.2 percent year-over-year.)

 

However, while home prices are falling, it's not by much. Since hitting an all-time high of $449,000 in June 2022, the median home asking price has fallen less than 1%, and was stuck at $445,000 in June.

 

Home prices and home inventory are as intertwined as buyers and sellers, and Hale notes that as long as inventory remains tight, "prices will continue to move higher."

 

For the week ending July 15, overall home inventory fell for the fourth consecutive week, with the number of homes for sale down 6 percent year-over-year.

 Mortgage rates just dropped, but will they stay low for long?

At the same time, the number of new sellers entering the market has declined for the 54th consecutive week, largely because many sellers may be reluctant to give up their current low-interest mortgages if they move.

 

"With high interest rates hampering sales activity, we expect the inventory of homes for sale to remain low, declining 5 percent overall for the year," Hale said. Additionally, "with more rate hikes likely on the horizon, sellers may continue to feel 'locked in' to previous rates."

 

However, there are reasons for optimism this week. During the week ending July 15, 102,000 new listings entered the market, the highest level of new listings in five weeks. While the lack of new listings remains a problem, the decline in new listings narrowed during the week ending July 15th.

 

"Hale noted, "Market listing activity improved over the past week, with new listings down only 19 percent from the previous week, compared to a 27 percent decline the week before." The increase in new listings over the past week has provided homebuyers with more options at slightly lower prices. However, it remains to be seen if these trends will continue.

 

All year long, homes have been taking longer and longer to officially hit the market.

 

During the week ending July 15, homes were on the market for 10 more days than they were at the same time last year. This marks 52 weeks longer for homes to be sold than at the same time last year.

 

However, homebuyers shouldn't take this extra time as a license to slow down their home purchases.

 

"While homebuyer affordability faces significant challenges as home prices and mortgage rates remain high, demand from homebuyers continues to be stronger than supply, and as a result, the time it takes to sell a home is still lower than it was before the pandemic," Hale explained.

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Mortgage rates just dropped, but will they stay low for long?
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